Just two months ago that the young forward stood on the Stadium of Light pitch, appearing bewildered as Unai Emery admonished him over not reading a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club went six without a win, doubts remained if Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the side's broader struggles.
“When Rogers netted his second… Emery tore off his coat, threw his arms wide, and bellowed in delight.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was entirely decidedly more positive. As the in-form star curled home his brace-sealing goal to reclaim the lead for Villa, the boss tore off his coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa marched on to a 10th successive win and having failed to win their initial half-dozen games, now sit just three points adrift of the leaders Arsenal.
Is This Team Legitimate Title Contenders?
This is a particularly tough proposition to address. History, the traditional standing of Villa, suggests not. Furthermore, they've rarely been wholly dominant in many games, even as the victories have stacked up.
Per the data, on just two occasions has the side had an expected goals figure more than 0.5 greater than the opposition. For a club that have strung together ten consecutive victories, Villa look weirdly vulnerable – yet at the moment the tight outcomes are falling their way.
The Winning Formula
Their recent policy looks like to trade blows with rivals before hoping Rogers to rescue them with a couple of precise efforts. This occurred at Leeds, it happened in London, and again versus Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from a brilliant finish, bent precisely inside the goal frame from a wide position. The follow-up goal acted as a slightly less clean iteration of goal number one as he seized on an Ollie Watkins lay-off.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
Can It Last?
Reason suggests otherwise. Against United, Manchester United had more shots and more efforts on goal. They have secured their last eight victories by the narrowest of margins. They’ve conceded in nearly all of those games.
A statistical correction could be the greatest opponent Villa must confront over the coming weeks. The forward, in all likelihood, cannot maintain thrashing his shots into the net's top corner forever.
A Case for Belief
Maybe there exists a different scenario where, rather than results trending towards performances, the level of play rises to match the results. Vital cogs may yet find their top level.
- The centre-forward might resume finding the net regularly.
- Jadon Sancho could transform into the performer he showed in Germany.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, bolstering a periodically leaky defensive unit.
This could contain the possibility of a genuine bid, however, it is improbable can continue to depend solely on one man.
Relishing the Unlikely
Yet, this was unforeseen. Nobody thought Aston Villa would occupy in the top three for the holidays. And certainly back in October, few could imagine Rogers as the year closed would be leading a championship pursuit while establishing himself as a crucial Three Lions star.
The current run should be enjoyed for the very reason that it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the home supporters when the game ended orchestrating the applause, he appeared to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form do not happen often and should be relished.
